I owe it to those investing the time to read this to get more specific on the residential collapse. We all know how important the single-family market is to the US economy and to the American psyche. So I did some soft research. It continues to be scary.
Look at one of the worst statistics out there: home pricing in Las Vegas peaked in August 2006 and reached a new low in March 2011. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) index for Las Vegas over this period dropped from 234.78 to 98.28, a decline of 58.1%. In the interest of presenting data that is less pessimistic - the home price index for a composite of 20 US cities dropped 32.6% over the same time period. We are back to home price levels reached in 2002 and 2003 before the bubble. We have known this for a while, but this magnitude of decline is unprecedented since the Great Depression.
It is no wonder then why 40% of previously owned home sales in March 2011 were distressed sales, meaning that they were re-sales of foreclosed homes or short sales of homes that were heading to foreclosure. Even four and one-half years after the peak, 10.1% of all currently existing Nevada mortgages are in foreclosure, compared to 7.3% in New Jersey, 6.5% in Illinois, 5.2% in New York, 4.5% in California, and 4.2% in Florida. These are still very big numbers.
The good news, if you can call it good, is that the number of delinquencies and mortgages going to foreclosure in most states is moderately declining. But, foreclosure inventory is still rising in most states, and that is one of the reasons that home prices continue to drop.
Home prices in February 2011 fell 3.3% below levels of a year ago, if you follow Case Schiller, or 5.7% if you follow the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Only Washington, DC showed a positive monthly change (+1.0%). One argument is that a year ago we were coming off the housing credit for first-time buyers. However, we have seen consecutive new lows in housing prices for each of the last six months. It is not getting better.
I thought I would look to homebuilders for further indications. Builder sentiment slipped from 17 to 16 in March 2011, on a scale of 100! The record low for this index was 8 in January 2009, when the economic world was at the precipice. A reading below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Not so good, obviously.
Thirty-year, fixed-rate mortgage rates in March 2011 were still around 5.0%, above their low in mid 2010 of roughly 4.5%. Interest rates are still very attractive. With all the concern about rising interest rates, and I agree that such concerns are valid, it appears that the interest rate impact on future single-family residential sales and price momentum, as rates rise, will also be negative.
There is talk about the expanding number of households, but also about the attractiveness of renting versus owning. Unemployment does not appear to be getting much better, and GDP expansion has slowed down (1st Qtr. 2011). I do not see that there is much gas in the tank for the residential marketplace (speaking of gas, I filled up my tank last weekend at a cost of $4.89 per gallon or over $85.00. That was a first for me).
We are definitely in a new economic space. Most people in the US today have never experienced this type of setback. I think we are in for continued tough going, and my recommendation for individuals is to maintain prudent fiscal conservatism. Tighten the belt, again, and hang on.